La Vista, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS63 KOAX 152303
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today and windy again Friday with gusts of 40-50+ mph.

- A stormy pattern develops Sunday-Wednesday with a good chance
  for widespread rainfall, and potentially multiple severe
  weather episodes.

- Don`t overlook the potential for heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding, especially Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

We have scattered clouds across the region this afternoon as a
weak shortwave moves across the area. Radar shows a few isolated
showers and storms developing from the cu field across central
Nebraska. For this reason, we`ve added a slight chance of
showers and storms across more of northeast Nebraska than
previously in the forecast. Instability combined with any
outflow boundaries that may develop could lead to a couple
funnel clouds or even a landspout this afternoon.

A strong low pressure system is located to our north over the
eastern Dakotas, creating a strong pressure gradient across our
area this afternoon. This is the cause of the strong westerly winds
we`re seeing this afternoon, with gusts to 50 mph. This evening
we will see the boundary layer decouple a bit bringing
wind speeds down to more reasonable levels, but mid-morning on
Friday these winds will ramp back up for another day of strong
westerly winds on Friday.

The Low finally exits stage right Friday night into Saturday
allowing winds to relax with high pressure bringing back sunny
skies. Winds will be light out of the northwest helping to keep
temperatures mild with highs in the 70s.

Ridging buckles up over the Central Plains this weekend as our
next trough digs into the Four-Corners region. Sunday we`ll see
a strong surface low start to develop along the lee side of the
Rockies in eastern Colorado which will pull a warm front north
across our area Sunday evening. Models differ on timing of this
frontal passage, with a greater severe threat if this front
lifts north during the day, but still some threat overnight even
if it waits to lift north until Monday morning. In the latter
case, we`d have more of an elevated storm threat with potential
for heavy rain, hail, and damaging winds.

Monday looks like the day with higher potential for severe
weather. Machine Learning algorithms are all highlighting our
area for potential as the warm sector of this Low will be
located across much of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
This area will see significant destabilization during the day
with a dry line providing the trigger for initially discrete
storms during the afternoon. All severe modes are in play for
Monday, with the primary mode of failure being how far north
the warm front gets Sunday night-Monday morning (possibly
limiting the severe threat to areas to our south). Monday is
certainly the day to watch for severe weather.

Showers and storms will linger into Tuesday as we remain under
the upper-level Low, with potential for cold-core funnels. We
don`t see the system completely exit our area until possibly as
late as Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers continuing
until then. We see a transition back to northwesterly flow
toward the second half of the week which may bring slightly
cooler than normal temperatures going into next weekend.

We`ll need to monitor for potential flooding and flash flooding
at times with these systems Sunday-Tuesday as we could see some
training storms develop. The WPC is highlighting our area for
potential excessive rainfall which could lead to flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Winds are on the downswing this evening, with gusts that reached
close to 40 kts earlier are now in the 25 kt neighborhood out of
the west. A few scattered mid clouds are also wafting through at
FL090, and should dissipate after sunset to leave most clouds
well to the north overnight. Also overnight, strong winds will
remain at FL014-FL017 at around 45 kts, resulting in low-level
wind shear that should last from 07-13z at KOFK and KOMA while
KLNK misses out just to the south. Otherwise, expect a gradual
ramp up of winds again tomorrow to slightly stronger speeds when
they peak after 18z. Lower ceilings should build southward
tomorrow afternoon from South Dakota, but KOFK only has a 40%
chance of seeing MVFR ceilings by 00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.
IA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-069-
     079-090.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen